Washington Policy Watch

News and perspective on public policy issues affecting Washington's economy and quality of life, brought to you by the Economic Opportunity Institute.

To restart the American economy, end trickle-up economics for the rich

Imagine giving an extra 5% of the nation’s total annual income to the residents of Wasilla, Alaska starting in 1980, and you’ve got a good grasp of income inequality in the U.S. today. Thanks to lower tax rates for the rich and growing income inequality, $650 billion in wages that would have gone to middle-class households since 1980 has instead been siphoned off to just 5,934 households at the very top of the top 1%.

While household income for the middle class has remained flat, income inequality has increased.  In 2010, median household income was $49,445 – a slight decrease from 1997.  For the top 1%, average income increased from $517,713 in 1997 to $1,530,773 in 2011.

As wages stagnate, middle class families are struggling to keep up with the rising cost of health care, gas and groceries. According to Raghuram G. Rajan, a former IMF chief economist, household debt has doubled as low and middle-income families attempt to bridge the ever-growing gap between income and expenses.

A recent IMF report found that nations with more equitable income distribution are more likely to enjoy longer periods of economic growth. Jonathan D. Ostry, the co-author of the report, suggests that future US periods of growth may only last one-third as long as they did in the 1960s, when our income gap was smaller.

Barry Ritholtz, CEO of the investment research firm Fusion IQ, notes that the Dow took 50 years to return its pre-Depression peak, as millions of potential investors avoided the stock market for a generation. “You’re going to lose a generation of investors,” says Ritholtz. “And that’s how you end up with a 25-year bear market. That’s the risk if people start to think there is no economic justice.”

America’s wealth is being concentrated into the hands of fewer and fewer people – at the direct expense of middle-class families and our economy as a whole.  The rich’s rising tide has neither lifted middle class boats nor kept the economy flowing smoothly.  While some argue raising taxes on the top one percent will hurt the economy, billionaire entrepreneur and venture capitalist Nick Hanauer sums it up perfectly:

I’ve never been a “job creator.” I can start a business based on a great idea, and initially hire dozens or hundreds of people. But if no one can afford to buy what I have to sell, my business will soon fail and all those jobs will evaporate.

That’s why I can say with confidence that rich people don’t create jobs, nor do businesses, large or small…An ordinary middle-class consumer is far more of a job creator than I ever have been or ever will be.

This post by EOI volunteer Pete Stewart

Filed under: tax and budget, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

So-called recovery means less income for working and middle class

A recent report by Sentier Research shows real median household income is continuing to decline for the American working and middle class.

The typical household income has lost more income since the economy recovery supposedly began than during the Great Recession itself.

During the official recession, which lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, American household income fell by 3.2%. But in the two year period following the end of the recession, household income fell by an additional 6.7%, down to $49,909 in June, 2011 from a high of $55,309 in 2007.

For the entire recession and recovery period, household income fell by 9.8%. The authors report, based on the annual Current Population Survey, conclude: “A decline of this magnitude represents a significant reduction in the American standard of living.”

The report found that some demographic groups lost more ground than others over the two years from June 2009 to June 2011:

  • Single parent households – often already struggling economically – lost even more compared to married couples. Real median annual household income for family households with a male or female head and no spouse present (many with children in the household) declined by 7.3 percent (from $39,321 to $36,465) compared to a decline for married-couple households of 4.5 percent (from $76,783 to $73,324).
  • Young people lost ground compared to older workers. Real median annual household income for households with a head under 25 years old declined by 9.5 percent (from $32,123 to $29,060) compared to a decline for households with a head 45 to 54 years old of 5.5 percent (from $65,911 to $62,315).
  • African Americans also fell further behind. Real median annual household income for households with a Black head declined by 9.4 percent (from $35,072 to $31,784) compared to a decline for households with a White head of 4.7 percent (from $59,111 to $56,320). The decline for households with a Hispanic head was 4.9 percent (from $41,945 to $39,901).

State level data is not featured in the report, but Washington median household income as measured in the Current Population Survey fell 7.9% between 2007 and 2010, to $56,253. The silver lining: Washington state’s median income remains well above the national level.

Read more: Household Income Trends During the Recession and Economic Recovery >

Filed under: state economy, , , , ,

Keep the jet in the hangar: Study shows rich stay put in high-tax states

A recent study titled “The Impact of Taxes on Migration in New England” says that employment, family and education are the three primary reasons people (wealthy or not) move from one state to another. Taxes have little – if anything at all – to do with it: “Taxes [have] essentially no impact on causing people to leave a state,” according to Jeff Thompson, study’s author.

This study mirrors the findings of other, similar research and statistical data – though that hasn’t stopped the ‘chicken-littles’ of the world from using sky-is-falling economic extortion to argue wealthy people exit high tax states. Typically, such stances ignore underlying factors – like a recession – that cause people to lose wealth (in other words, they’re no longer millionaires, just high six-figure types).

Even a cursory look at the data indicate wealthy people don’t jump in their private jets and fly to North Dakota when their home state raises tax rates:

  • 3 of the states with the highest top marginal income tax rates (NJ, CA, and HI) have higher percentages of households with incomes above $200,000 and higher average incomes for the top 5% of household than any of the 7 states with no income tax.
  • The California Budget Project notes that California imposed a temporary tax increase on high earners from 1991 to 1995, and the number of millionaire filers increased by 33.4%. Another high-income tax hike was implemented in 2005, and the number of millionaire filers increased by 37.8%.
  • When New Jersey increased tax rates on income over $500,000 in 2004, millionaires left the state at the same rate as those unaffected by the tax. In addition, the total number of high-income filers increased in New Jersey from 2004 – 2006, and the state received a $1+ billion revenue gain as a result.

Millionaires may be more mobile because of their wealth, but like most other people, they tend to choose proximity to family, job location and quality of life over tax rates.

NPR has a great summary of the new study here.

Filed under: tax and budget, , , ,

Chart of the Week: Initiative 1098 effective tax rates are lower than most

Initiative 1098 will lower property taxes on residential and commercial property owners, exempt 81% of Washington small businesses from B&O taxes, and reduce the B&O rate for another 12% of businesses. It will offset the revenue reductions with a tax on high incomes (5% on income above $200K/individual or $400K/joint, and 9% on income above $500K/individual or $1 million/joint).

Because the tax will only apply to income over the threshold, we must calculate the effective tax rate in order to understand what percentage of income is actually paid in tax. The effective tax rate is found by subtracting the exempt amount from total income, and multiplying the remainder by its corresponding marginal tax rate. Read the rest of this entry »

Filed under: tax and budget, , , , , , , ,

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